When Will Republicans Bail?

With one shocking headline after another, many progressives are starting to wonder if there is anything that would cause Republicans to stop supporting Donald Trump. Historically, partisans tend to rally around their president during a scandal. As the prior two links explain in more detail, Republicans didn’t start jumping ship until near the end of the Nixon investigation. Reagan’s approval among Republicans never dropped below 73 percent. Bill Clinton actually grew in popularity during the Monica Lewinsky investigation, since he was able to portray it as the work of a rabid partisan prosecutor.

It seems unlikely that leading Republicans who had backed Trump in the past will quickly bail on him now. Every prior backing ties these Republicans closer together. Any Republican who breaks ties now will face questions of “why didn’t you do this sooner?” The Republicans who break with Trump over the Comey firing and/or Trump’s ties to Russia will probably be the same Republicans who refused to endorse him in the general election and have otherwise taken a stand.

It looks like we need to wait for Republican voters to turn on Trump. Then Republicans in Congress will jump off the sinking ship. That’s not exactly the most optimistic proposition. After all, Trump faced a major scandal one month before the election when the Access Hollywood tape was released. Trump boasted about committing sexual assault on this tape. Anderson Cooper confronted Trump during the next debate about whether Trump understood what he was admitting to. Many progressives thought there was no way Trump could win after the tape came out…but he won the Electoral College anyway!

Obviously, a lot has happened in American politics since the Access Hollywood tape and the election. Voters who were willing to give Trump a chance could always say enough is enough. But how come voters didn’t reach this conclusion during the election? I thought it would be worth checking the 2016 American National Election Survey. The ANES has two waves, one before the election and one after the election. In the post-election wave, they asked two questions specifically about the Access Hollywood tape:

In October, the media released a 2005 recording of Donald Trump having a crude conversation about women. Have you heard about this video, or not?

95.54 percent of respondents said they heard about the video. There’s little partisan split: 95.11 percent of Trump voters said they heard about the video. So what did they do with the information. The ANES didn’t ask “did the video affect your vote?” Instead, they asked how others should use the information:

In deciding how to vote, how much do you think the information from the video should have mattered to people?

A great deal, a lot, a moderate amount, a little, or not at all?

I’m not an expert on polling language. My naive assumption is that asking should this have mattered to people is better than asking how did this affect your vote. Strong partisans probably made up their mind about the election well before the tape came out. However, strong partisans may also have the strongest feelings about what moderates should do with this information. To start off with, let’s look at some crosstabs for how people answered this question, based on who they said they voted for:

Video Should Matter… Other Voter Trump Voter Overall
A Great Deal 55.46% 1.99% 32.07%
A Lot 20.80% 4.37% 13.61%
Moderate Amount 13.26% 20.67% 16.50%
A Little 6.36% 34.59% 18.71%
Not At All 4.12% 38.39% 19.11%

There’s a definite partisan split here. There are also some differences within each group. Are there any other variables that explain how voters thought people should make sense of the Access Hollywood tape? If there’s something here beyond the basic “who did you vote for?” this may give us some clues about how people will react to Trump’s more recent scandals.

To test this possibility, I ran an ordered logit regression. The ologit model assumes we can create separate bins for each response category and place them in order from left to right. Each independent variable pushes respondents to the left or the right. For example, voting for Trump probably pushes people to the “the tape should not matter at all” side. The ologit model also assumes there are no walls or speed bumps that would keep a respondent in a middle bin instead of going all the way to an extreme if the value on the independent variables is high or low enough.

Here are the independent variables I used:

  • trumpvoter: Did the respondent vote for Trump or someone else? (Non-voters are in the ANES but excluded here)
  • male: Is the respondent male?
  • senior: Is the respondent a senior citizen? (Age 65 or older)
  • collegegrad: Is the respondent a college graduate?
  • nonwhite: Is the respondent non-Hispanic White or not? (I tested more specific racial categories)
  • foxindex: Did the respondent watch The O’Reilly Factor, Hannity or The Kelly File on a “regular basis” the month before the election? I added the yes responses together. The ANES tells respondents to check the box if they saw a particular TV show once in the last month. It’s a very low bar for TV news. Nonetheless, 65.42 percent of Trump voters have a zero here.
  • msnbcindex: Did the respondent watch Hardball, The Rachel Maddow Show or All In With Chris Hayes? I added the yes responses together for a 0-3 scale.
  • anynightlynet: Did the respondent watch any of the network nightly news broadcasts? Since these broadcasts are direct competitors in the same time slot, an index doesn’t make sense here. It’s just a yes/no variable.
  • ideology_post: The respondent’s self-described political ideology on a seven point scale, where 1 is strong liberal and 7 is strong conservative. Respondents who said they haven’t thought about their political ideology much were excluded (when I double-checked in a separate analysis, they were like moderates on this question). Strong liberals are the omitted category.

Here are the results. Positive coefficients push people towards saying the Access Hollywood tape should not matter at all. Sadly I have to screenshot this, so apologies for the mess:

Screen Shot 2017-05-19 at 8.56.54 AM

Screen Shot 2017-05-19 at 8.53.49 AM

Even after I added a bunch of control variables, whether or not someone voted for Trump is still the biggest factor determining how much they think the Access Hollywood tape should have mattered to people. It’s not surprising that Trump voters would back their candidate and tell others to ignore the scandal. Loyalty to a particular candidate (or maybe a party) blows most variables out of the water. The gender difference is so small that it is not statistically significant. Fox News didn’t push viewers further right here, although MSNBC pushed viewers a little further left.

The big surprise is the effect of political ideology. When I first ran this model, I treated ideology as a linear variable. I didn’t expect there to be anything all that dramatic. Using political ideology as a categorical variable was one of those last minute “I better double check everything before hitting publish” situations. In this model, strong liberals are the omitted category. The regression coefficients measure the difference between moderates and strong liberals, strong conservatives and strong liberals, etc.

Everyone is considerably to the right of strong liberals’ feelings about the Access Hollywood tape. Maybe a better way to put it is strong liberals felt very strongly that the tape should matter a great deal to people. Other respondents had more mixed opinions. After controlling for who someone voted for, there isn’t much of a difference between moderates and strong conservatives. To help make these regression coefficients more concrete, I used Stata’s margins command to give predicted probabilities for some respondents:

Not Trump Not Trump Trump Trump
Strong Lib. Moderate Moderate Strong Cons.
A Great Deal 87.36% 42.40% 4.02% 3.38%
A Lot 7.82% 24.30% 6.66% 5.71%
Moderate Amount 3.52% 18.44% 20.56% 18.46%
A Little 1.00% 6.83% 34.98% 34.58%
Not At All 0.30% 2.22% 33.78% 37.87%

There is a big jump among people who didn’t vote for Trump between strong liberals and moderates. (The median Clinton voter identified as slightly liberal.) There is another big jump between moderates who voted Trump versus moderates who voted for someone else. However, the difference between moderate Trump voters and strong conservative Trump voters is minimal.

Strong liberals rallied around the Access Hollywood tape. I don’t think any of the strong liberals I knew gave Trump a chance of winning after the tape was released. All the criticism of Trump being unqualified because of his incompetence and racism turned in to criticism that Trump is morally unqualified because he bragged about sexual assault. How could anyone but the most committed conservative vote for this man? I was always a bit dubious about this argument. Historically, the United States is a bit of an outlier in expecting moral purity from heads of state. Some voters are deeply affected by seeing someone who bragged about sexual assault in the White House. Other voters are more selfish, and mainly want to know what government will do for them.

Without any polling or data, my guess is that the current scandals surrounding Trump will play differently. Trump fired the head of the FBI and is making sweeping changes to law enforcement philosophy. Trump gave classified intelligence to the Russians and may have deep ties to Putin. This would fundamentally weaken national security. Trump’s current scandals are less symbolic. It’s easier to connect Trump’s latest actions to dangerous policy. If strong liberals focus on the tangible implications of Trump’s scandals – not just the symbolism – it may be possible to pull moderates and weaker conservatives away from Trump.


About Noah Grand

PhD in Sociology. I use statistics to predict news coverage. And home runs. View all posts by Noah Grand

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